Trading Expectancy Calculator

Six-step workflow

1. Copy current values from the official account, platform, or journal.
2. Keep every unit consistent; do not mix ticks, points, pips, dollars, or percentages.
3. Enter the planning assumptions without changing them to force a preferred answer.
4. Calculate and read every output, including the warning below the headline number.
5. Verify instrument specifications and binding firm rules at the official source.
6. Save the result with its date and compare it with what actually happened.

Understand the output

Formula: Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss − costs measured in R.

Worked example: At 45% wins, +1.6R average winners, −1R average losses, $100 risk, and $3 costs, expectancy is about +0.14R per trade.

Common mistakes: excluding fees, using a tiny sample, mixing strategies, and treating expectancy as a forecast.