Break-Even Win Rate Calculator

Six-step workflow

1. Copy current values from the official account, platform, or journal.
2. Keep every unit consistent; do not mix ticks, points, pips, dollars, or percentages.
3. Enter the planning assumptions without changing them to force a preferred answer.
4. Calculate and read every output, including the warning below the headline number.
5. Verify instrument specifications and binding firm rules at the official source.
6. Save the result with its date and compare it with what actually happened.

Understand the output

Formula: Break-even win rate = (average loss + cost in R) ÷ (average win + average loss).

Worked example: With +1.5R average winners, −1R losses, and 0.03R cost, break-even is about 41.2%.

Common mistakes: ignoring costs, assuming average payoffs remain stable, applying it to a small sample, and treating break-even as a target.